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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p>Policy-makers in Brussels worry increasingly about corruption, national mal-administration and the rule of law in the EU. New thinking is needed to address such concerns.</p>', created = 1508713042, expire = 1508799442, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:a2e0fc9a449d23260297181f76e8ce8d' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p>Japan fears China\'s growing strength and increasingly assertive foreign policy. Japan has responded by strengthening alliances with the US and other maritime powers.</p>', created = 1508713042, expire = 1508799442, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:e75a9218a5a7355d3166c9976c67ec26' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Governments in the eurozone\'s periphery are making indiscriminate cuts. Reducing spending that does little to support demand and recycling it into investment would help.</p>', created = 1508713042, expire = 1508799442, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:7f9eb31e9c9b8055d92fd8910251817e' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The UK has always had a difficult relationship with the EU. Its continued membership of the club can no longer be taken for granted.</p>', created = 1508713042, expire = 1508799442, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:1a5cce0ffbe4ffd20c7a91384075b481' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">How the eurozone handles Greece will determine whether or not the single currency survives – and hence the future of the EU as a whole.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If a Greek exit from the eurozone is mishandled, contagion to the other struggling member-states could be uncontrollable, leading inexorably to the collapse of the euro. However, if a Greek exit is accompanied by big institutional reforms, the currency union could still be saved. Indeed, a Greek departure could be positive for the eurozone if it freed up the political space needed for the German authorities to embrace such reforms.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Some eurozone policy-makers believe that a Greek ousting from the single currency would be a cathartic experience. A Greek eviction would demonstrate to other struggling eurozone economies the risks of backsliding on their fiscal targets or the terms of their bail-out programmes. Contagion risk would be limited, as governments would have no choice but to knuckle down, which would reassure investors about the sustainability of their public finances. According to this analysis, the ejection of Greece would obviate the need for big institutional reforms of the currency union such as debt mutualisation or pan-eurozone bank protection.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There are a number of problems with this line of reasoning. First, it assumes that Greece and other hard-hit members of the eurozone could meet their fiscal targets if only they tried harder to do so. As such, it is an example of the flawed reasoning that has driven the eurozone\'s policy response to date and which is responsible for the crisis having spun out of control. The assumption is that if Greeks want to stay in the currency union, they know what they must do: tighten fiscal policy as much as required and push through the agreed economic reforms. Greece is admittedly a very poorly-governed country. But this narrative is still misleading, because the extent of fiscal austerity that the Greeks have been required to follow has been self-defeating, pushing the economy into a deep slump and causing a dramatic rise in public debt.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The second problem with this analysis is that it underestimates the contagion risk posed by a Greek exit. The political crisis in Greece and the mounting risk of it leaving the euro has already led to a steep rise in the borrowing costs of the weaker Eurozone economies and caused a renewed loss of investor confidence in their banks. The reasons for this are obvious: a Greek departure would expose the supposed irreversibility of eurozone membership as a myth. Once it becomes clear that membership is not forever, the risks of lending to other struggling member-states (or their banks) that face economic stagnation and unachievable fiscal targets within the currency will increase still further. Capital flight from the struggling member-states would accelerate, weakening banks and the sovereigns responsible for backstopping them.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The third problem with the belief that a Greek exit would somehow be a cleansing experience is that it assumes Greece could simply be pushed out and left to its fate as a tragic example of the risks of non-compliance with bail-out programmes. But this is not what would happen. Aside from accepting huge write-downs on money they have lent to Greece, the rest of the eurozone would have to provide Greece with ongoing support in order to shore up its banks and its public finances. The alternative could be social and economic collapse, and the possible creation of a failed state within the EU. Indeed, a Greek departure would create a precedent but it could well be an awkward one. With help from the eurozone and IMF, Greece might well recover relatively quickly outside the eurozone, making the option of withdrawal attractive to other countries facing depressions and an erosion of policy sovereignty within the currency union.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The best way of limiting contagion would be to keep Greece in the eurozone. However, the political obstacles to continued Greek membership are almost certainly insurmountable. It is true that Greece\'s predicament owes much to the policies it has been required to pursue by the troika of the eurozone, IMF and ECB. But the clientelism and corruption of the Greek political system understandably make it hard for other countries to make concessions to the Greeks or to feel confident about sharing a common currency with them. The reforms needed to save the euro will require a high degree of solidarity between participating economies, something which will be difficult with Greece still in the currency union.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The question is therefore how to make a Greek ejection from the eurozone compatible with the survival of the single currency. The exclusion of Greece would clearly have to be accompanied by the establishment of a much bigger bail-out fund in order to increase the size of the so-called ‘firewall\' around the other vulnerable member-states. But stemming the contagion caused by Greece leaving the euro would need much more than that; it would require three major reforms. First, an agreement to mutualise – that is, assume joint responsibility for – a proportion of each member-state\'s public debt. Second, the introduction of pan-eurozone bank protection, under which responsibility for back-stopping banks would move from national governments to the eurozone as a whole. Third, an agreement to broaden the ECB\'s mandate, so as to open the way for it to fully undertake the lender of last resort functions required of a central bank.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A Greek exit from the eurozone would increase, not lessen, the challenges facing the single currency. Far from reducing the need for fundamental institutional reforms of the eurozone, a Greek departure would further increase the need for them. If the currency union is to avoid contagion it will need to accompany the loss of its most controversial member with measures that key member-states have persistently opposed. The likelihood of this happening will to a large extent come down to what happens in Germany. Will the German authorities calculate that fundamental reforms are in Germany\'s economic and political interests? And, if so, will they be able to persuade a sceptical country that this is the case?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;</p>', created = 1508713042, expire = 1508799442, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:87816a96b19aa4752c53c9b779394f8e' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Western policy towards Syria is a mess and needs to be rethought before it is too late. Lebanon is sliding into conflict and jihadist and other extremist groups have increased their presence in both countries.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Gulf states, with tacit US support, have started arming Islamist militant groups of which they have limited knowledge and control. Meanwhile, UN peacekeepers in South Lebanon say that they see the conflict in Syria spilling over to the Lebanese border with Israel. Under President Sarkozy, France was unable to exert influence in Lebanon or Syria – countries where Paris used to have significant clout. President Hollande can do better.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The shortcomings of the the West\'s approach are now clear. First, Western countries ruled out military intervention in Syria, granting a reprieve to President Bashar al-Assad. Second, President Sarkozy and other Western leaders cut off political dialogue with the Syrian president, declared his days numbered and withdrew their ambassadors from Damascus, thus giving up the chance to negotiate with the government. And third, the West refused to arm the Syrian opposition, offering only \'nonlethal\' aid such as communication systems, which do little to turn the tide against the regime. Government services and the economy have been crippled by the violence and international sanctions. Anybody tempted to protest or revolt has now done so. And still the regime endures.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After almost a year of violence, the UN Security Council belatedly dispatched former UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, to negotiate a ceasefire with Syria and to establish a dialogue aimed at \'political transition\'. But Annan was given few inducements with which to influence the regime\'s behaviour. Damascus knows that it has committed crimes against humanity – including torture, summary executions and the burning of villages reported by Human Rights Watch and others.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group has observed that \"the more one is implicated in worsening regime violence, the greater the price to be paid in the event of its collapse.\" These men will not just lay down their weapons out of goodwill; they have to be dealt with to avoid further disorder across the region. Even if they surrendered unilaterally and accepted being brought to justice (a very unlikely scenario), there is currently no credible alternative to take over the government of the country and to oversee a process of transition, justice and reconciliation. The best course is a dialogue that puts the Syrian government, different opposition groups and their international sponsors in the same room.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><br />France, with a new leadership in the Élysée coupled with a repository of diplomatic experience of Syria unavailable to other Western countries, can help. President Hollande should ask the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, to call an international conference on Syria that includes senior representatives from the regime and its allies. Before doing so, France should sound out Beijing, Moscow and Tehran, on what would be an acceptable deal to ensure the most stable transition out of violence for Syria.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A French approach will probably be appreciated by China, which has few direct interests in Syria but is concerned about the wider repercussions for its growing engagement with other parts of the Middle East, including the Gulf. Russia and Iran will take some pleasure from a perceived climb-down by the West. But both countries are likely to engage seriously with Paris in order to avoid Syria and Lebanon falling into anarchy. Each stands to suffer from an escalating conflict. Moscow could yet lose its only significant ally in the region – Syria – in the ensuing chaos, while Tehran could be dragged into a proxy war in Lebanon which may irreparably damage its nuclear talks with the West, risking a military attack from the US.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><br />In making the case for dialogue to its allies Paris should also enlist the support of Israel which is said to be increasingly alarmed at the radicalisation of Syria\'s youth, bellicose opposition rhetoric regarding the Golan Heights and the prospect of Syria\'s arsenal of chemical weapons falling into the hands of extremists. The enemy you know may be better than a failed state that is home to extremist non-state actors. Nor is the descent of Lebanon into civil war in Israel\'s interests – a takeover by the militarily superior Hezbollah militia would prompt calls for a re-invasion of Lebanon, leading to another prolonged Israeli occupation.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Any credible plan from Paris must include an incentive for the regime to change its behaviour. The West should drop any demands for the immediate toppling of Bashar al-Assad. If the regime commits to free and fair parliamentary elections, the West should also suspend some economic sanctions. An elected Syrian parliament should then draft a new constitution. Given the entrenched position of the regime, the West cannot expect an immediately happy outcome to such a transition process; the current Syrian military leadership will not give up its power over all aspects of domestic and foreign policy. But it may allow its future influence and discretion to be checked by a reformed judicial system. In the same way as Turkey\'s democratic transition took time, an initial balancing between the president, the military and a democratically-elected parliament in Syria is probably the best that can be hoped for in the short-term. How and when to bring war criminals to justice will remain a question that Syrians and the West will have to grapple with over a longer period of time.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A realistic attempt by France to negotiate a political transition will be welcomed by many in Syria and Lebanon. A phased, compromise transition between the government and opposition groups is probably the only way to avoid worse chaos in the future. This does not mean offering a carte blanche to a brutal regime that has engaged in a litany of appalling war crimes. But neither the Syrian people nor the West can afford to let the current trend continue – there is too much at stake in terms of lives and strategic interest.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;</p>', created = 1508713042, expire = 1508799442, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:fd64f3a4e6cf5f7c0c098d609da47d95' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Vladimir Putin\'s re-election as Russia\'s president, and his absence from recent summits of the G8 and NATO, indicate a hardening of Russian attitudes towards the West.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What does this imply for Russia\'s relations with the former Soviet republics in Europe and Central Asia? The EU and NATO have little interest in further enlargement; yet Moscow\'s policy towards the \'near abroad\' still matters. For example, clashes with Russia on issues such as Moldova\'s right to join the EU could derail co-operation on issues such as Iran\'s nuclear programme.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In October 2011, Putin proposed the creation of a \'Eurasian Union\', a political grouping of some former Soviet republics, with Moscow at its centre. Kremlin watchers say Putin believes that each great power should have its \'entourage\', and that the West will take Russia more seriously if it leads a cluster of neighbours. Putin\'s latest effort to constitute such a group is a reversal of sorts: under his predecessor, Dmitry Medvedev, Moscow reduced subsidies on oil and gas exports to Belarus and Ukraine, and refused to intervene in Kyrgyzstan when a revolt toppled the president there in 2010. Russia has never relinquished the ambition to exercise economic and political control over its neighbours, but lately it had been more hands-off.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Putin\'s Eurasian Union may well succeed where previous integration projects such as the \'Eurasian economic community\' failed. First, it makes economic sense for Russia: the proposed membership only includes Moscow\'s important trade partners (Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine), which have energy resources and other businesses Russia covets. When poor Kyrgyzstan expressed interest in joining, Moscow demurred. By cherry-picking members who hold assets of interest to Russia, the Kremlin made the idea of a workable Eurasian Union more credible.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Second, the US and EU governments are focused on ending the economic crisis and are paying less attention to foreign policy issues. In the past, the US and the EU would have given political support and money to help build the economies and political systems necessary for former Soviet satellites to stand independent from Russia. Today, such help is in short supply.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Third, Eastern Europe itself has become less attractive to the West. The governmentof Ukraine, the most populous of the countries between the EU and Russia, has persecuted political opposition and curbed freedom of speech. It has also mismanaged the Ukrainian economy. Belarus, the most authoritarian of East European countries, has periodically flirted with reforms and the prospect of drawing close to the EU. Butsince his re-election in 2010, President Lukashenka has cracked down on the opposition and relations with the EU are in deep freeze. Many Western governments have concluded that they cannot help a region that does not want to help itself.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The crisis of democracy in Ukraine and Belarus favours Russia: it has discouraged Western investors and made key former Soviet republics dependent on Moscow\'s aid and investment. Russian companies control seven of Belarus\' 32 banks. Last November, Minsk handed control over its gas transit system to Gazprom in exchange for loans. Ukraine needs help with repaying €4.2 billion in loans in 2012, and may be forced to surrender control of its oil and gas pipelines to Russia in exchange for financial assistance. But the causes of the two countries\' misfortune have little to do with Putin or his return; Moscow has benefited from, not instigated, misguided Ukrainian and Belarusian policies.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moldova will feel Russia\'s renewed interest in the neighbourhood most acutely. Shortly after Putin\'s election, Moscow appointed the nationalist politician Dmitry Rogozin as point man for relations with Moldova and the Transnistria region, which broke away in the 1990s. The selection of a strongman suggests that Russia will only tolerate reconciliation in the country on Moscow\'s terms, likely to include a pledge by Moldova to eschew a free trade deal with, and membership of, the EU. While Moldova is not among the countries mooted for Eurasian Union membership, Russia seems keen to make sure that it does not join alternative groups either.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Notwithstanding Putin\'s foreign policy ambitions, Russia will be distracted by economic issues and the maintenance of internal political stability over the coming years. Moscow will devote less than full attention to the Eurasian Union, though it will systematically seek to deny the former Soviet republics closer ties with the EU. And Russia will have plenty of opportunities to do so, thanks to the EU\'s waning interest, and to economic incompetence and authoritarian tendencies in Minsk and Kyiv.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;</p>', created = 1508713042, expire = 1508799442, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:f630517f48996d6dc1222ff0ef65020f' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p>European militaries remain wary of collaboration. NATO should give them incentives and address their fears.</p>\n', created = 1508713042, expire = 1508799442, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '1:a9d6ef3f26d4900f29fad7083bfc7977' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The US sees itself as a Pacific power, and the Europeans are busy plundering their defence budgets. Does NATO have a future?</p>', created = 1508713042, expire = 1508799442, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:2beeb685bbba02c4024c98b6e7975132' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Can François Hollande persuade Angela Merkel to shift the EU\'s eurozone strategy away from austerity and deficit reduction, and towards growth and employment?</p>', created = 1508713043, expire = 1508799443, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:b671f15d99903ebbb94c61847fbbf0a7' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p id=\"yui_3_7_2_1_1357477427311_12428\" class=\"yiv903558805MsoNormal\">The EU would have more influence in China if its governments were more willing to work together and if it focused on a few key objectives.</p>', created = 1508713043, expire = 1508799443, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:0b4a8a8d11942938621ed73857eb5485' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.

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