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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p>European youth unemployment is unacceptably high. Governments are trying to push young people into work, despite weak demand: they would do better to educate them.</p>\n', created = 1508713027, expire = 1508799427, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '1:d87418ba197a81550ffbbe67c74c4f1e' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: SELECT data, created, headers, expire, serialized FROM cache_filter WHERE cid = '3:20aa1563559de819cad3a54acaf6b011' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 27.
  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p>At a time when some governments are pushing for a more integrated European Union, the British are becoming more eurosceptic. This contradiction increases the likelihood of Britain eventually leaving the EU – an outcome that, if current trends continue, is thoroughly plausible.</p><p>In the short term, Britain\'s decision in December to opt out of the \'fiscal compact\' may not damage its interests a great deal. France tried to turn the compact into an inter-governmental club that would sideline the Commission and cover a wide range of economic policies, including the single market, but Germany and other governments shot down those ideas. The Commission will play a key role in the compact, ensuring that the single market remains the business of the EU as a whole. And since December\'s summit, the countries that value Britain\'s support for free markets and free trade have made an effort to engage it. In March, 11 of them plus Britain signed a joint letter calling for an extension of the single market.</p><p>But in the long run, the gap between Britain and its partners is likely to widen. The eurozone cannot resolve its contradictions without much closer co-ordination of economic policy-making, and that will apply to countries wishing to join the euro. In Germany, many politicians are talking about a \'political union\'.</p><p>A politically-integrating core will make the EU less congenial to the British, many of whom think its sole rationale is its market. The core can establish new institutions without Britain. But eurosceptics will argue that the other countries\' institutional reforms will affect Britain and that its people should therefore be consulted on whether they wish to stay in such a Union.</p><p>The 2011 European Union Act requires a referendum in Britain if any treaty transfers further powers to the EU. In theory, an integrating core should not trigger a British referendum, but in practice it would lead to growing pressure for one.</p><p>Many members of the governing Conservative Party want a referendum on EU membership. Its leaders are opposed, since a referendum would split the party and be a distraction from sorting out the economy. But future leaders may well choose to give party members what they want.</p><p>The growing euroscepticism of the Conservative Party – which was a pro-EU party until the late 1980s – reflects the evolution of British public opinion. Only in 2011 did opinion polls start to show a clear majority for leaving the EU. The euro crisis has made a big difference. Eurosceptics always said that the euro would lead to disaster and they can now claim they were right. Europe\'s leaders scarcely inspire confidence: countless emergency summits and rescue packages have failed to solve the eurozone\'s problems.</p><p>Many Conservatives – and the small businesses that are close to the party – have come to view the EU as a source of red tape, a hyper-bureaucratic organisation that stifles free enterprise and a slow-growing economic bloc that drags down the performance of the British economy. Some of them see the future in stronger bilateral ties with emerging markets and North America – notwithstanding the fact that the socalled BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) took just 7 per cent of British exports in 2011 while the EU accounted for more than half.</p><p>The City of London, in particular, worries that Paris and Berlin are trying to use new EU financial regulations to steal or shackle its activities. Many British people have no great love for bankers, holding them responsible for their economic woes. But a lot of financiers – who are often close to senior Conservatives and newspaper editors – have become eurosceptic. They fear, in particular, that the Commission proposal for a financial transactions tax – an idea strongly backed by France and Germany – could push a big chunk of their business outside the EU.</p><p>Migration, a toxic political subject, has also fuelled euroscepticism. Britain was the only member-state (apart from Ireland and Sweden) to let in workers from the Central European countries as soon as they joined the EU in 2004 – though it won little credit with its partners for doing so. More than a million arrived, causing resentment in some communities, and the EU was blamed.</p><p>Well-funded and effective lobbying groups, such as Open Europe, bolster the eurosceptic cause, while their pro-EU equivalents lack muscle. Many large companies remain pro-EU but are reluctant to speak out, lest they annoy the government. After the December summit, for example, senior executives from some of the biggest foreign banks in London said in private that Britain\'s isolation had reduced its capacity to influence future EU financial legislation. But none of them would say so on television.</p><p>What can be done to arrest Britain\'s slide towards the exit? Business leaders should highlight the benefits of membership – such as increased foreign direct investment, and the ability to shape the rules of the world\'s largest single market – and put money into pro-EU lobbies. Trade unionists also have a role to play. Many of them welcome rules from Brussels on working hours and maternity rights but seldom champion the EU.</p><p>Politicians of left and right are fearful of defending the Union lest it cost them votes. They need to find the courage to spell out how the economy gains from membership. And when the EU achieves something in the wider world – such as negotiating a trade deal with South Korea, brokering a global climate agreement in Durban or forging an oil embargo against Iran – politicians should explain how it amplifies Britain\'s voice.</p><p>The British government should come up with positive ideas for the EU – and not only further enlargement (on which it has little support) or the deregulation of services and the digital economy (on which it has allies). Constructive ideas on climate, energy, the neighbourhood, foreign policy or defence would make it easier for Britain to forge alliances with like-minded countries, such as the Nordics, Poland, Italy, and – on some issues – France and Germany. Such alliances would enhance Britain\'s ability to set the Union\'s agenda and thus win the arguments in Brussels. This would help to refute the eurosceptic assertion that the EU works against British interests.</p>', created = 1508713027, expire = 1508799427, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:20aa1563559de819cad3a54acaf6b011' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p>Economic recovery in Europe is being held back by the unprecedented weakness of business investment. Despite a secular decline in business taxation and labour market reforms that have boosted the power of capital relative to labour, the ratio of investment-to-GDP across the EU is at a 60 year low. Rather than investing their profits, firms are sitting on huge holdings of cash. This is depressing economic activity and forcing governments to run big fiscal deficits. Unfortunately, government policies across Europe threaten to keep things this way.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Europe’s austerity-minded politicians and policy-makers argue that business investment will recover once governments have put public finances on a sound footing. Companies will then feel confident about investing for the future. According to this argument, investment is weak because of the weakness of public finances. However, their assertions do not bear scrutiny. The widening of fiscal deficits followed the collapse of investment – not the other way round. Weak public finances are the flipside of low levels of business investment. Corporate cash holdings are now €2 trillion in the eurozone and an astonishing £750 billion in the UK. Until investment recovers, public finances will remain weak.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Why are firms not investing? One reason is corporate deleveraging. Firms built up high levels of debt in the run-up to the financial crisis, largely as a result of activity such as mergers and acquisitions rather than investment in organic growth, and are trying to reduce their debt to more manageable levels. Another reason is that many banks have stopped providing revolving credit lines, forcing firms to build up cash cushions. This is a particular problem for countries where banks, rather than stock markets, are the dominant vehicles for financing firms.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>But the bigger reasons for the collapse in investment are almost certainly corporate governance and economic policy. Executive remuneration is increasingly driven by short-term share performance. Senior executives have little to gain personally by signing-off on investment, as most of it depresses profits over the time horizons which determine their financial rewards. This is most clearly the case in the UK, and helps explain why the country has the biggest problem with corporate cash hoarding.</p>\n<p>However, the most important factor holding back business investment across Europe as a whole is government policy. Firms will not invest unless they are confident about the outlook for demand for whatever it is they produce. And here two factors are crucial. One is excessive fiscal austerity, which has snuffed out Europe’s tentative economic recovery and threatens a swath of the eurozone with slump. The other is that Europe has experienced a huge shift in the relative proportions of national income accounted for by capital and labour. Lower corporate tax rates and labour market reforms aimed at reducing the bargaining power of labour have boosted the income of the corporate sector and depressed that of the household sector.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>While corporates continue to save much more than they invest, either households or governments will have to spend more than their incomes, or countries will have to export more than they import. Although some European countries are able to fill the gap by relying on exports, this is clearly not a suitable model for all. Europe as a whole will not be able to put its public finances on a sustainable footing until business investment returns to normal levels. This is highly unlikely to happen while governments are cutting public spending before the private sector has deleveraged, encouraging a further decline in labour income relative to capital income (as is happening across the eurozone), and failing to take steps to reverse the decline in bank credit to firms.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>If investment is to recover, Europe needs to do a number of things. First, fiscal policies must be consistent with a return to economic growth. The eurozone and the UK provide ample evidence of the risks of doing too much too soon. Second, Europe must avoid policies that lead to a further erosion of labour income as a share of overall national income. Europe needs higher German wages more than it needs lower Spanish ones. If all eurozone economies attempt to reduce wages relative to the eurozone as a whole – as is currently happening – investment spending will remain chronically weak.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Third, Europe should resist calls to further reduce the tax burden facing business. The decline in business taxation and the rise in corporate income over the last 20 years has not encouraged higher investment, since the flipside has been a slump in household income (and with it consumer demand). Europe should revisit the case for a harmonisation of corporate tax bases and rates. Harmonised tax rates would make it hard for businesses to play governments off against one another. The issue of corporate remuneration also needs to be addressed. Excessive executive pay captures most of the headlines, and is undoubtedly socially corrosive, but the more serious problem is the perverse incentives facing chief executives. Too many firms are being run for cash rather than growth, with damaging implications for economic activity.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Fourth, European governments must do more to restore confidence in their banking sectors. At present, businesses are loath to increase their reliance on banks and the banks are wary of lending more.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>The influence of business on economic policy across Europe has never been greater. Sometimes this can be positive: governments can learn from the corporate sector and businesses are right to warn of the damage done by excessive and ill-thought out regulation. But the macroeconomic effects of business influence on policy are pernicious. Countries are not like businesses. A business can save more (for example, by cutting wages) without undermining demand for its products. Countries can only behave like firms if they are able to rely on exports to close the gap between what they produce and what they consume, which they cannot all do simultaneously. Europe’s business community should be lobbying for policies that promise a recovery in demand, not demanding that governments step up the pace of fiscal consolidation and cut business taxes.</p>\n', created = 1508713027, expire = 1508799427, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '1:8c735f3049d457c2d014f8049a03c9c9' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Reports by official US agencies, such as the Government Accountability Office, make it crystal clear: the Afghan government is stealing money from the international community and from the Afghan people, on an alarming scale. US and European officials in Kabul are dismayed but seem paralysed: their response is to vow to ‘stay the course’. That course is now at a dead-end. A new political bargain with Kabul is urgently needed if the Afghan government and its foreign backers are to win the support of the country’s population.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Afghans are angry that the US and its allies have given so much to the very few and the very corrupt. A widespread view has taken hold that the US and its allies have deliberately corrupted the country’s elite. Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world, and the US and its allies fund the Afghan government almost completely. The Americans, the reasoning goes, could not have provided almost $70 billion of assistance to Afghanistan since 2002 without dominating their junior partner in Kabul – so corruption must be the West’s fault.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Few in Afghanistan are willing to entertain alternative explanations such as incompetence, poor policy and weak coordination on the part of the allies. They do not see the US, the most powerful and technologically advanced of countries, as being capable of such bungling. Conspiracy must be the obvious explanation. In government circles in Kabul, many whisper that the US covets Afghanistan’s considerable natural resources, or that the country is to become a permanent military base for the US and its allies. Many Afghans do not believe that foreign forces are in Afghanistan to help them – otherwise, why would NATO tolerate the widespread abduction, torture, extra-judicial killings and incarceration without trial by the very Afghan security forces that it trains and pays for? And why have the allies persevered with a war ostensibly fought against terrorists when al-Qaeda has been gone since 2002? Despite a decade of unprecedented financial generosity, the West is perceived as the principal cause of, rather than the solution to, Afghanistan’s problems.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The irony is that the US does not control its Afghan ally – it needs Kabul as much as Kabul needs the US. America’s exit strategy relies on the Afghan government improving its performance. US military commanders have long been convinced that corruption, including a broken justice system, is a critical recruiting sergeant for the insurgency. But no improvement in governance is evident – the US exit strategy is designed for a political context that does not exist. When the US has tried, half-heartedly, to press Kabul to tackle corruption, the Afghan government has responded with meaningless gestures or outright obstruction. Rather than recognising that its strategy is wrong and doing something to change it, over the last few years Washington has talked itself into a campaign of escalating military operations and increased aid. The main beneficiaries of much of this increased assistance are the very people whom the US failed to compel to tackle corruption in the first place.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As more money is poured in, Afghanistan’s banking system has become a source for embezzlement by the country’s elite. A US investigation into New Ansari – an investment agency closely linked to the family of President Hamid Karzai and several cabinet ministers – revealed that up to $2.5 billion of international aid money was funnelled out of Afghanistan to Dubai through New Ansari and other couriers in 2009 alone. Afghan officials who tried to investigate such abuses, such as the former deputy attorney general, the head of the major crimes task force and the governor of the central bank, were stripped of office, imprisoned or intimidated into silence.</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The political alternative left to the US and its allies is to make clear to Kabul that they are ready to take their money off the table (NATO is already scheduled to withdraw most troops by 2014). In doing so, the West would have to hope that the Afghan government’s instinct for self-preservation would force it to change its ways: without foreign military assistance and financial support, an unpopular government might not last long. The US and other donors should link future support to a demonstrable, dramatic reduction in corruption, meaningful negotiations with reconcilable elements of the insurgency and a commitment to fair elections. There is no point in continuing to fund a government that is so self-serving and corrupt that it stands no chance of increasing its credibility with the Afghan people. That runs contrary to every counter-insurgency experience and manual.</p>', created = 1508713027, expire = 1508799427, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:ce99bcf6421d2fe3c079f2b45f25429a' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The incoming Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is no angel but rumours of Central Europe\'s capitulation to populism and euroscepticism have been greatly exaggerated.</p>', created = 1508713027, expire = 1508799427, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:f9c42a96a32a64a5a7c80ac9ad9b8d14' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The ECB\'s decision to lend almost unlimited amounts of money to Europe\'s banks has bought the eurozone some time. But there is risk that time will be wasted.<br /></p>', created = 1508713027, expire = 1508799427, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:409de6b2b47c7c0ef957316b77193517' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In failing to respond to Poland\'s proposals on EU defence, European governments are missing an opportunity to improve Europe\'s ability to tackle military crises abroad.</p>', created = 1508713027, expire = 1508799427, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:08fc36420c7f1a69fe7c9b298de2f6ab' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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  • user warning: Table './cer_staging/cache_filter' is marked as crashed and should be repaired query: UPDATE cache_filter SET data = '<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">With the US reducing its role in NATO, the Europeans need to assume more military responsibility, and the alliance needs to narrow its ambitions.</p>', created = 1508713027, expire = 1508799427, headers = '', serialized = 0 WHERE cid = '3:b9be5380465e08927371c236f57bb112' in /home/cer/staging/includes/cache.inc on line 112.
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